The weather could soon have an impact on the market | HER


A slow start to the planting season has yet to find its way into market prices, but further delays could soon have an impact.

Jack Scoville, an analyst at Price Futures Group, said the wet, cool spring seen across much of the Midwest has yet to set farmers back to the point of significant yield loss. Markets are more focused on global issues right now.

“I don’t think we’ve factored everything in yet,” Scoville said. “I think people are selling commodities, looking at federal stocks and inflation considerations. This is all sitting on the futures contracts (to start in May). “

He said the slow start to the planting season does not yet signal a time to panic, but acreage numbers may soon change.

“It’s a cause for concern, especially for corn because of the lower area projections last March,” he said. “If that’s true, we’re going to need every bushel of yield we can get.”

Scoville said one of the main concerns for traders is the COVID lockdown in China. Restaurants have been closed in Beijing and other cities mostly remain closed. This will have a dramatic impact on demand in the short term.

“The longer this goes on, the worse (demand) will get,” Scoville said. “Some of these lockdowns have been going on for a few weeks, so the market will sit up and take notice.”

The Russian war in Ukraine is also driving market action and causing significant volatility as daily reports are released. In terms of commodities, the lack of Russian exports and the potential impacts on Ukraine’s 2022 crops are the main factors moving forward.

“There’s a lot going on to follow,” Scoville said. “The war has an impact on the economy as well as on rising crude oil prices. There are also problems with fertilizers, some people talk about a shortage of fertilizers. There is a lot to say. »

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